Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Market strongly favors Alonso not winning the 2026 F1 title.

The prediction market indicates a 99.65% probability that Fernando Alonso will not be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion, suggesting a strong consensus against his chances. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, assigning a 99% probability to the 'NO' outcome. With a confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.65.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Alonso's historical performance may not support a championship win.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable with low volatility.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 External factors like team changes could impact probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.