Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?

Market indicates a low probability of temperature increase in February 2026.

The prediction market shows a 1.75% chance of a global temperature increase between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026, suggesting a strong consensus against this outcome. With a confidence level of 70/100 and no edge in pricing, the market appears to be accurately reflecting current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability reflects a consensus among market participants.
• 3 No significant edge indicates fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is immediate, indicating urgency in market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.