Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?

Low probability for a temperature increase of 1.10ºC to 1.14ºC by February 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief that global temperatures will not rise within the specified range by February 2026, with a probability of 92.4% for 'NO'. The confidence level is moderate at 70/100, suggesting some uncertainty but overall consensus against the increase.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows limited instances of such specific temperature increases.
• 3 The market is currently balanced with no significant edge.
• 4 Time pressure is high with only 2 hours until expiry.
• 5 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.