Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?

Market favors no increase in global temperature by Feb 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 81.5% probability that global temperatures will not rise between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC by February 2026. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 80%, suggesting a consensus on the outlook. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is minimal.
• 3 Confidence level of 70/100 suggests moderate certainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.