Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?

The market shows equal probabilities for a temperature increase in February 2026.

With both market and AI probabilities closely aligned at around 50%, the prediction market indicates uncertainty regarding global temperature changes. The confidence level of 70 suggests moderate belief in the current probabilities, while the edge of 1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced. The upcoming expiry time of 8 hours adds urgency to any shifts in sentiment or information.

• 1 Market probability is evenly split at 50% for both outcomes.
• 2 AI probability slightly favors a temperature increase at 51.5%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 70 out of 100.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 8 hours remaining.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.