Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?

Market predicts a high likelihood of temperature increase exceeding 1.05ºC by February 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against a global temperature increase of less than 1.05ºC in February 2026, with a NO probability of 98.65%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of this outcome, suggesting that current climate trends are expected to continue.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a temperature increase beyond 1.05ºC.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is minimal, indicating alignment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 70/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 7 hours, which may limit market adjustments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.5.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.