Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?

Market favors no significant temperature increase by February 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 76.6% probability that global temperatures will not exceed a 1.24ºC increase by February 2026. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 75.1%, suggesting a consensus on the stability of temperature trends in the near term. The confidence level of 70 out of 100 indicates moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a stable climate scenario.
• 2 Key factors include recent temperature trends and climate policies.
• 3 Historical data shows a low frequency of rapid temperature increases.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with only 4 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.