Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?

Market shows a close probability for Gold hitting $4,900 by March end.

The prediction market indicates a slight edge towards Gold hitting a low of $4,900 by the end of March, with a probability of 52%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a nearly even split, reflecting uncertainty in market sentiment. The edge score of -3 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current market probability shows a tight race between YES and NO.
• 2 The slight edge towards YES indicates cautious optimism.
• 3 Pulse AI probability reflects a balanced view on potential outcomes.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate, suggesting mixed investor sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited, increasing urgency for market participants.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.

Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.

Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.

Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.

This market will resolve based on the settlement p