Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Low probability for Weinstein receiving a 10-20 year sentence.

The market indicates a strong belief that Harvey Weinstein will not be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years, with a 93.15% probability against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of a lighter sentence or alternative outcomes.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest confidence in a lighter sentence for Weinstein.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 1.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding to the unpredictability.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.