Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

The market strongly favors a NO on Weinstein receiving over 30 years in prison.

Current market probabilities indicate a 94.9% likelihood that Harvey Weinstein will not be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 92.9% probability for the NO outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight increase in YES probability compared to the market.
• 3 Current confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 4 Market appears to be fairly priced with minimal edge.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future shifts.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.