Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Market indicates a high likelihood of prison time for Harvey Weinstein.

The prediction market shows a 68.85% probability that Harvey Weinstein will receive a prison sentence, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 63.85%. This indicates a consensus that prison time is more likely than not, with a fair pricing edge of 5 suggesting stability in the market's assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a prison sentence for Weinstein.
• 2 The probabilities reflect a significant consensus against no prison time.
• 3 Market pricing suggests stability with a low edge of 5.
• 4 The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, adding unpredictability to the market.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.