Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Iowa State has a low chance of winning the 2026 NCAA Tournament at 2.55%.

The prediction market indicates a 2.55% probability of Iowa State winning the 2026 NCAA Tournament, with a strong consensus against it at 97.45%. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance at 4.05%, but overall confidence in the NO outcome is relatively high at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability for Iowa State winning is 2.55%.
• 2 Strong NO sentiment dominates the market at 97.45%.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher YES probability at 4.05%.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with a 1.5 edge.
• 5 Time to expiry is 611 hours, allowing for potential shifts in team dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.