Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Italy has a low chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 2.35%.

The prediction market indicates a 2.35% probability for Italy to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with a strong consensus against this outcome at 97.65%. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting that current sentiment does not favor Italy's chances significantly.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Italy winning.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 No edge indicates a balanced market with no clear mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 85 suggests strong reliability in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in team dynamics and performance.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.