Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Lando Norris has a very low chance of achieving pole position in the Sprint Qualifying.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Lando Norris achieving pole position, with a probability of only 0.05%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 1.55%, but both sources reflect a predominant belief that he will not secure pole. This market appears to be fairly priced, given the confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a marginally higher chance for 'YES' at 1.55%.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 76 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position in the Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 13, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 20, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the Sprint Qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.