Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?

Lando Norris is highly unlikely to win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Lando Norris winning, with a 99.95% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of YES at 1%, indicating a general lack of confidence in his chances. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting that current sentiments are aligned with historical performance and expectations.

• 1 Market probability for NO is extremely high at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability for YES at 1%.
• 3 The edge of 0.95 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 135 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 7, 2026 (ET).

If the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 14, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.