Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?

Liam Lawson has a very low chance of winning the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix.

The prediction market shows a dominant sentiment against Liam Lawson winning, with a 99.95% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1% for a 'YES', indicating a consensus that Lawson is unlikely to succeed in this event.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 1%.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates strong skepticism about Lawson's chances.
• 4 The edge of 0.95 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 104 hours, adding urgency.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 7, 2026 (ET).

If the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 14, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.