Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Liam Lawson to win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix.

The market indicates a strong belief that Liam Lawson will not win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, with a 99.55% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for a YES outcome at 1.95%, suggesting a consensus on Lawson's chances. The edge of 1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment and analysis.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Liam Lawson's historical performance may influence perceptions.
• 3 Market probability aligns closely with AI predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 441 hours.
• 5 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in the market.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 29, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.