Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?

Market suggests low likelihood of María Corina Machado entering Venezuela by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 26.5% chance of María Corina Machado entering Venezuela by the end of March, with a stronger consensus on her absence. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, suggesting a general agreement on the low likelihood of her entry. The edge of 1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome at 73.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability slightly higher for YES at 28%.
• 3 Market edge indicates fair pricing with low volatility.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.