Will Mercedes achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?

Mercedes is unlikely to achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 Australian GP.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Mercedes achieving the fastest lap, with a probability of only 0.05% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment heavily favors the NO side. With 42 hours until the event, the market appears to be fairly priced based on existing data.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance for YES at 1.55%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited at 42 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve according to the constructor team whose driver achieves the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 7, 2026 (ET).

If the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 14, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to "Other."

This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team whose driver is officially credited with the fastest lap in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The fastest lap must be set during the race itself; times from practice sessions, qualifying, or any other sessions are not considered.

If no driver completes a lap during the race (e.g., due to a red flag ending the race prematurely), this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.