Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 80/100. Market appears fairly priced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michael Aswell defeats Luke Riley at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.