Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Oliver Bearman is highly unlikely to finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix.

The market shows a strong consensus against Oliver Bearman finishing on the podium, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO'. The low probability for 'YES' suggests that market participants have little confidence in his chances, despite a slightly higher AI probability of 1%.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a 'NO' outcome for Bearman on the podium.
• 2 The AI probability is marginally higher for 'YES' but still indicates low confidence.
• 3 The edge of 0.95 suggests the market is fairly priced with little room for mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates a moderate level of certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 With 110 hours to expiry, there is still time for potential developments to influence the market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

If the Chinese Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Chinese Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.