Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Oliver Bearman has a very low chance of winning the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability for Oliver Bearman to win, suggesting strong skepticism about his chances. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 1.55%, but both figures reflect a consensus that winning is highly unlikely. With a confidence level of 60/100 and time to expiry at 186 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Bearman's historical performance does not support a strong win probability.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent betting activity.
• 4 The time to expiry allows for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is likely well-balanced.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 15, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 22, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.