Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Piastri finishing on the podium at the 2026 Japanese GP.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Oscar Piastri will not finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, with a market probability of 89.35% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 13.65%, suggesting a consensus that Piastri faces significant challenges in achieving a podium finish.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Piastri's historical performance may influence perceptions.
• 3 Market probabilities suggest a balanced view on Piastri's chances.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in team strategies.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

If the Japanese Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Japanese Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.