Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Piastri to win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix.

The market shows a strong preference against Oscar Piastri winning the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, with a 97.65% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 5.35%, indicating some uncertainty or differing opinions among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Piastri's recent performance may influence future probabilities.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 215 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 15, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 22, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.