Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Pierre Gasly has a very low chance of winning the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability for Gasly's victory, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher 1.55%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 193 hours, the market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Gasly's historical performance does not support a strong win probability.
• 3 The market shows low liquidity, indicating limited trading activity.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 193 hours until the event.
• 5 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is well-aligned with AI predictions.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 15, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 22, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.