Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?

Market predicts low likelihood for 'Project Hail Mary' 2nd weekend box office in the specified range.

The prediction market shows an 80.5% probability that 'Project Hail Mary' will not achieve a box office between $50M and $54M in its second weekend. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 77% probability against this outcome. The market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily against the box office range.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests cautious optimism from AI.
• 3 Historical performance of similar films may influence current expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, indicating consistent trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is imminent with only 25 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.