Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?

Market leans towards 'NO' for box office range of $80m to $85m.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards 'NO', indicating that participants believe the opening weekend box office for 'Project Hail Mary' will fall outside the $80m to $85m range. With a market probability of 69.5% for 'NO' and a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge favoring the 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 69.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 34%.
• 3 Market edge of 3.5 indicates fair pricing.
• 4 Confidence level at 60/100 reflects moderate certainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 81 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 20 - March 22) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.