Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Perez finishing on the podium at the 2026 Japanese GP.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Sergio Perez finishing on the podium, with a 99.7% probability for 'NO'. The AI model also supports this view, indicating a 96.7% likelihood of him not securing a podium finish, suggesting a general lack of confidence in his performance prospects for this event.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a 'NO' outcome for Perez's podium finish.
• 2 AI model aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low confidence.
• 3 Current market edge suggests pricing is fair based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 55/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 235 hours allows for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

If the Japanese Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Japanese Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.