Will Sergio Perez get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

The market strongly favors that Sergio Perez will not secure pole position.

Current market sentiment indicates a 0% probability for Sergio Perez achieving pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, with a corresponding AI probability of 1%. This suggests a consensus that he is unlikely to perform well in qualifying, although the slight AI probability indicates some minimal chance. The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 1, reflecting a high confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against Perez securing pole.
• 2 AI probability suggests a minimal chance of 1% for Perez's pole position.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 80/100, indicating strong market belief.
• 4 The edge of 1 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is 155 hours, allowing for potential developments before the event.

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.

For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.