Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Market strongly favors Sergio Perez not winning the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.55% for a NO outcome regarding Sergio Perez's victory, indicating strong skepticism about his chances. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, with a lower probability of 3.45% for a YES outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge. With 441 hours until the event, there is still time for sentiment to shift based on upcoming performances or news.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Perez.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low probability of victory for Perez at 3.45%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time until the event is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 29, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.