Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Low probability for SoFi Technologies to be added to the S&P 500 by March 2026.

The market indicates a 2.35% chance of SoFi Technologies being added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 3.85%, suggesting a marginally more optimistic view but still indicating low likelihood overall.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a slight underestimation by the market.
• 3 SoFi's recent performance and market conditions are critical factors.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 5 514 hours remain until the expiry, allowing time for potential developments.

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for March 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index.

An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).