Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates a low likelihood of MicroStrategy joining the S&P 500 by 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against MicroStrategy being added to the S&P 500, with a 99.15% probability for 'NO'. The AI probability also reflects a low chance of inclusion, suggesting that current market sentiment is firmly against this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.15%.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance at 2.35% for 'YES'.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 524 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for March 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index.

An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).