Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

The market strongly believes the Fed will not cut rates in the next three meetings.

Current market probability indicates a 0% chance of the Fed implementing consecutive rate cuts in January, March, and April. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 2%, but overall confidence remains low, reflecting a consensus against rate cuts during this period.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against rate cuts.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a minimal chance of rate cuts at 2%.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 80/100, indicating strong market conviction.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1188 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a stable economic outlook with no immediate need for cuts.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.go