Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

The market strongly believes the Fed will not implement a Cut–Cut–Pause strategy.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% belief that the Fed will not adopt a Cut–Cut–Pause approach in the upcoming decisions. The Pulse AI suggests a minimal chance of 2% for this outcome, reflecting a consensus that aligns with the market's stance. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced at this time.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against a Cut–Cut–Pause.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a very low chance of this outcome at 2%.
• 3 Confidence level of 80 suggests a solid market position.
• 4 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1169 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.go