Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

The market strongly favors no Fed rate changes in the next three meetings.

Current market probabilities indicate a 98.7% likelihood that the Fed will not implement a cut-pause-cut strategy in its upcoming decisions. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting limited expectation for significant shifts in monetary policy in the near term.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors no rate cuts in the near future.
• 2 Market probability suggests minimal expectation for policy changes.
• 3 Historical trends show the Fed typically avoids abrupt changes.
• 4 Liquidity in this market is stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 202 hours until expiry.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federal