Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

High probability of Fed cutting rates in the next three meetings.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood (98.35%) that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in its upcoming decisions. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 95.35%, suggesting a consensus on the expected monetary policy direction. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -3.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a rate cut.
• 2 Economic indicators suggest a need for monetary easing.
• 3 Historical trends show similar probabilities in past rate decisions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 212 hours until expiry.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federal