Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

The market strongly favors no change in Fed decisions over the next three meetings.

Current market probabilities indicate a high confidence in the Fed maintaining its course, with a 99.6% likelihood of no changes. The low probability assigned to a decision change suggests that traders expect stability in monetary policy for the upcoming meetings.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors no changes in Fed decisions.
• 2 Market probabilities suggest strong confidence in existing policy.
• 3 Historical trends show stability in Fed decisions during similar periods.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears adequate for current trading volume.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 213 hours until expiry.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federal