Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

The market strongly favors no change in Fed decisions over the next three months.

Current market probabilities indicate a 97.7% likelihood that the Fed will not change its decisions in January, March, and April. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for a potential change. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a moderate confidence level.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors stability in Fed decisions.
• 2 Historical trends show limited frequency of changes in such a short timeframe.
• 3 Liquidity in this market is adequate, reflecting investor confidence.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate, with 1169 hours until expiry.
• 5 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is well-aligned with current expectations.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.go