Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

The market strongly favors a NO on Fed rate cuts in the next three meetings.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% belief that the Fed will not implement a pause or cuts in the upcoming decisions. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 2% for a YES outcome, suggesting strong consensus against rate cuts. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced at this time.

• 1 Market consensus is firmly against rate cuts in the near term.
• 2 Current economic indicators do not support a pause or cuts.
• 3 The market's pricing reflects a stable outlook on Fed policies.
• 4 Liquidity appears sufficient for current market conditions.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with only 73 hours until expiry.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federal