Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Market indicates a low probability of the Fed pausing and cutting rates in the next three meetings.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the Fed pausing and cutting rates, with a 94.95% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES', suggesting a modest divergence in expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing expectations.
• 3 Historical trends show that rate cuts are often preceded by clear economic signals.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in economic conditions.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypol