Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for the Fed's pause-cut-pause scenario.

With a market probability of 99.1% for NO and a Pulse AI probability of 97.1%, the consensus is that the Fed will not follow the pause-cut-pause strategy in the next three meetings. The confidence level of 75/100 indicates a moderate level of certainty in this prediction, suggesting that current market conditions and sentiment support this outcome.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.1%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a much lower probability of YES at 2.9%.
• 3 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Current market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 5 Time to expiry is 1169 hours, allowing for potential market shifts.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.go