Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Market leans towards the Fed not pausing and cutting rates in the next three decisions.

The current market probability indicates a strong belief that the Fed will not implement a pause-pause-cut strategy in the upcoming meetings. With a 72.5% likelihood against this scenario, the market sentiment is leaning towards continued rate stability or increases. The AI's slightly higher probability for a pause reflects some uncertainty but still aligns with the overall market view.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors no rate cuts in the near term.
• 2 Historical data shows a tendency for the Fed to maintain rates during uncertain economic conditions.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current probabilities.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate, with 2337 hours until expiry.
• 5 The AI model suggests a slight chance of a pause, but overall consensus remains against it.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypol