Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

The market strongly predicts the Fed will not pause in its next three decisions.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that the Fed will not pause its decisions in December, January, and March. The Pulse AI model aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a minimal chance of a pause. With an edge of 2, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting strong confidence in the outcome.

• 1 Current market probability for a pause is at 0%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a very low probability of 2% for a pause.
• 3 The market is showing strong confidence with an 80/100 rating.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 79 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federal