Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

The market strongly favors a Fed pause in the next three meetings.

With an 82.5% probability for a Fed pause in January, March, and April, the market shows significant confidence in this outcome. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a high likelihood of a pause, albeit slightly lower at 79.5%. The edge of -3 suggests that the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment is heavily leaning towards a pause.
• 2 Key factors include recent economic indicators and inflation trends.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest a pause is common in similar scenarios.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 1182 hours until expiry.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.go