Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Market shows a slight lean towards the Fed pausing in the next three decisions.

The prediction market indicates a 52.5% probability that the Fed will pause its rate decisions in March, April, and June, closely aligned with the Pulse AI's 53%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a low edge of 0.5, the market appears fairly priced, suggesting uncertainty among participants.

• 1 Current sentiment favors a slight chance of a Fed pause.
• 2 Probability margins are narrow, indicating uncertainty.
• 3 Historical trends show mixed outcomes for similar Fed decisions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current odds.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 2326 hours until expiry.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypol