Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?

The market indicates a low probability of the Fed's lower bound reaching 1.75% or lower by 2027.

With a market probability of 9% for a YES outcome, participants largely believe the Fed's lower bound will not drop to 1.75% or lower before 2027. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance at 12.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65 out of 100, indicating a fairly balanced perspective on this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards NO at 91%.
• 2 Market appears fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.
• 3 Time to expiry is substantial at over 6627 hours.
• 4 Moderate confidence level of 65 suggests some uncertainty.
• 5 AI probability slightly higher than market, indicating mixed expectations.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.