Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?

Market predicts low chance of Fed's lower bound hitting 2.25% before 2027.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the Fed's lower bound reaching 2.25% or lower before 2027, with a probability of 89.5% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating that market participants expect stable or increasing interest rates in the near future.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 89.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 14%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6637 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.