Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

The market suggests a lower chance of the Fed's lower bound hitting 2.75% or lower by 2027.

Current market probabilities indicate a 39% chance of the Fed's lower bound reaching 2.75% or lower before 2027, with a stronger consensus against this outcome at 61%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards NO at 61%.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge towards NO.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 7117 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Historical trends suggest lower bound rates are resistant to significant drops.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.