Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?

Market indicates low likelihood of Fed's upper bound reaching 4.5% by 2027.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the Fed's upper bound reaching 4.5% or higher before 2027, with a probability of only 5.05% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that current economic conditions and expectations are not aligned with a significant rate increase in the near future.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a well-priced market with minimal edge.
• 3 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in economic conditions.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.