Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?

Market predicts low chance of Fed's upper bound reaching 5.0% before 2027.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the Fed's upper bound reaching 5.0% or higher before 2027, with a 96.7% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of such an increase in interest rates.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.
• 5 Edge suggests that the market is fairly priced at this time.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.